Australia’s medical cannabis market is one of the largest legal markets on the planet, with many companies based in other countries exporting medical cannabis products to Australia. Domestic medical cannabis production occurs in Australia as well.
Australia’s medical cannabis industry imported over 42,000 kilos of medical cannabis products in 2023 alone. By comparison, Australia’s domestic medical cannabis growers produced a total of 26,593 kilograms in 2023, of which 2,066 kilograms were exported to other markets.
If current trends persist, Australia is set to surpass 200,000 medical cannabis approvals in 2025. If that does happen, it would set a new annual record. By comparison, Australia issued 177,762 medical cannabis approvals in 2024.
According to a new market analysis by Research and Markets, Australia’s legal cannabis industry is set to experience significant growth between now and the year 2030.
“The Australia Legal Cannabis Market, valued at USD 123.9 million in 2024, is projected to expand significantly to USD 540.6 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 23.70%.” Research and Markets stated in a recent press release.
A major wildcard for Australia’s legal cannabis market is if the country’s lawmakers approve recreational cannabis legalization between now and 2030. If only medical cannabis is legal between now and then, the market potential will obviously be less compared to the market potential if both medical and adult-use cannabis products are legal.
According to a recent report compiled and published by the Penington Institute, permitting legal adult-use cannabis sales in just the Australian state of Victoria alone could create a significant number of new jobs in the area and provide a significant boost to the local economy.
“Legalising cannabis for adult use could generate nearly $2 billion in government revenue and create more than 17,000 jobs over the next decade, according to economic modelling commissioned by the Penington Institute.” stated Cannabiz in its original reporting.
“The research, conducted by consultancy firm Sapere, estimated a regulated market would contribute $10 billion to Victoria’s gross state product in 10 years.” the outlet also reported. “By the final year of the modelling period, annual government revenue was projected to reach $316 million, primarily through licensing fees and payroll tax.”
Australia’s Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) previously estimated that a legalized domestic adult-use cannabis market would generate $28 billion in tax revenue in the first decade. However, researchers at The Conversation “think the PBO’s estimate is too high, and based on the current patterns of cannabis use, $13 billion is a more credible estimate.”
The Conversation estimates “that a new legalised market could attract 3.4 million cannabis users in its first year” and that “Australia consumes 441 tonnes of cannabis per year.”
The researchers at The Conversation note that the “Parliamentary Budget Office supposes a price of $16.95 per gram, of which $3.55 would be tax – 10% GST and 15% excise” and that the “Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC) estimates that one gram typically costs $22.50.”
However, The Conversation indicates that “we base our estimated tax revenues on a retail price of $12 per gram, of which $2.51 would be tax” and using those figures is how they arrived at the $13 billion figure.
There are a lot of moving parts when it comes to Australia’s emerging legal cannabis industry, but the future looks bright, and only time will ultimately tell how big the nation’s industry will become by the end of this decade.