Whitney Economics released its annual revenue forecast for 2025 today, and estimates that the legal cannabis industry’s combined revenue in the U.S. will be “between $29.1 billion and $29.6 billion.”
“With U.S. forecasted cannabis revenues coming in at between $29.1 billion and $29.6 billion, projected 2025 revenues will fall below the $30.1 billion level achieved in 2024. Note this is adult-use and medical regulated sales only.” wrote Whitney Economics in its newsletter today, announcing its revenue forecast.
Whitney Economics describes itself as creating “value for a global clientele by providing hard data, deep analysis and thought leadership on the U.S. and global hemp and cannabis industries.” Led by internationally acclaimed economist Beau Whitney, Whitney Economics consistently publishes insightful data and information about the emerging cannabis industry.
“Price compression leads to declining margins, struggles with profitability and increases in unregulated activity. These declines are forecasted to continue into 2026, leaving policymakers with the unenviable choice between managing declining revenues when budget deficits are increasing or raising taxes on cannabis sales, which typically leads to additional economic stress on operators during a period of macroeconomic softness.” Whitney Economics stated as to likely why the overall revenue of the U.S. cannabis industry declined in 2025 compared to 2024.
There were some bright spots for certain state-level markets in Whitney Economics’ 2025 analysis. Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Connecticut, New Mexico, and Oregon were listed as ending up with “positive growth,” albeit not substantial growth, and “newer markets are forecasted to have strong years such as New York (up 213%), Ohio (Up 159%), New Jersey (Up 109%) and Minnesota (104%)” according to the newsletter.
The emerging cannabis industry in the United States received a much-needed metaphorical shot in the arm this week, with the President signing an executive order calling for federal cannabis rescheduling to be expedited.
Rescheduling would provide various improvements to cannabis policy and regulation in the United States, with 280E reform being the most immediate. Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code prohibits businesses from deducting certain business expenses from gross income associated with the “trafficking” of Schedule I or II substances, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act.
Moving cannabis to Schedule III will result in state-legal cannabis businesses in the U.S. saving billions of dollars annually. Those cannabis industry tax savings can obviously be used for any number of things, including helping companies expand their operations domestically and internationally, and improve their profit margins.
Additionally, rescheduling cannabis would help boost cannabis research by removing some of the barriers that have historically limited cannabis research efforts. Rescheduling could also help improve access to the nation’s banking system and services, although to what degree is something that only time will tell. The rescheduling executive order, combined with recent changes to hemp industry regulations in the United States, will presumably result in a much different cannabis industry landscape in the U.S. in 2026.