Florida May Become The Second-Largest Cannabis Market In The U.S.

Florida is set to vote on an adult-use cannabis legalization measure this November. The measure was placed on the ballot via the state’s citizen initiative process, and due to Florida’s election laws, the measure will require at least 60% of the vote to pass.

If Florida voters do approve the measure, it would make Florida the first state in the Southern United States to adopt recreational legalization and permit retail sales to adults. According to a recent poll, the measure was receiving 66% support from surveyed Florida voters.

The State of Florida already permits medical cannabis sales, and the state has roughly 900,000 registered patients. According to cannabis industry data company Headset, “Florida could see $4.9 billion to $6.1 billion in sales during the first year of implementation (June 2025 through May 2026).”

An April 2024 market analysis by Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic & Associates projected that Florida’s cannabis industry would triple if voters approve adult-use legalization, going from the current $2 billion medical cannabis market to a $6 billion medical and adult-use cannabis market.

The nonpartisan Florida Financial Impact Estimating Conference published an analysis last July which determined that “expected retail sales of non-medical marijuana in Florida would generate at least $195.6 million annually in state and local taxes once the retail market is fully operational. It could go as high as $431 million.”

Cannabis data company BDSA is projecting that Florida’s legal cannabis market will become the second largest market in the nation by 2028, only behind California. As originally reported by Cannabis Business Times, BDSA has determined the following about Florida’s cannabis market:

  • Total medical cannabis sales in 2023 topped $2.6 billion
  • Currently, 647 dispensaries are serving customers
  • Annual total sales will top $4.5 billion by 2028

“We think that just given the trajectory of the market so far and given how strong consumer participation growth and patient growth has been in Florida, we do think it’s a really big opportunity, and we are very confident that it’s going to be the second-biggest market by 2028,” said Brendan Mitchel-Chesebro, an analyst with BDSA, per original reporting by Cannabis Business Times.

If/when Florida becomes the first state in the South to permit adult-use cannabis sales, Florida will be a recreational cannabis commerce oasis, and that will remain the case until other states in the region launch their own sales.

Just as Colorado and Michigan greatly benefitted from being the first states to permit sales in their region, the same will be true in Florida. Michigan is currently the second largest market in the U.S., however, legal sales are set to launch in Ohio soon, and that will reduce sales in Michigan, just as it did in Colorado as other states in the region launched their own legal markets.