Ohio’s emerging legal cannabis industry is in the midst of a major milestone right now, with state regulators currently accepting and processing applications from aspiring adult-use cannabis retailers. The application process for recreational cannabis dispensaries launched on Friday in Ohio.
Pablo Zuniac of Zuniac and Associates recently conducted an analysis of Ohio’s cannabis industry, and is projecting that by mid-2025 the state will have 254 licensed cannabis dispensaries, nearly double what the state currently has for medical cannabis.
“Ohio is estimated to have 254 dispensaries by mid-2025, according to new equity research by a marijuana financial analyst, putting it in the middle of the density pack among states where recreational marijuana is sold.” Cleveland.com stated in its original reporting.
“The 254 dispensaries Zuniac estimates Ohio will have by the middle of next year would be 22 dispensaries for every 1 million people in the state.” Cleveland.com also stated. For contextual purposes, below are some of the ratios for other states (dispensaries per 1 million residents):
- Connecticut: 9 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Illinois and New Jersey: 13 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Maryland: 17 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Arizona: 21 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- California: 32 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Missouri: 33 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Washington: 57 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Massachusetts: 68 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Michigan: 97 dispensaries per 1 million residents
- Colorado and Oregon: 190 dispensaries per 1 million residents
According to the Ohio Medical Marijuana Control Program, as of April 30th, 2024 the state had 167,153 “patients with both an active registration and an active recommendation.” Ohio released updated patient enrollment numbers on May 28th, and the active patient enrollment number dropped to 165,746 patients.
According to cannabis industry data company Headset, “Ohio has been averaging $40 million in monthly sales over the past year. Generally, we see a 2 to 3X increase in sales with adult-use conversion, which would put Ohio at an $85 million monthly run rate right out of the gate. This is conservative; we anticipate even higher sales due to Ohio’s unique market dynamics and large population.”
The pre-roll sector in Ohio is assumed to experience the most dramatic change, with Headset pointing out that, “Ohio’s medical market prohibits smoking, banning Pre-Rolls, a category that captures 13.4% of national sales. Expect this to change with adult use, leading to significant opportunities in the Pre-Roll category.”
When legal adult-use cannabis sales begin next month in Ohio, they will be subjected to a ten percent excise tax in addition to an existing 5.75 percent sales tax.
According to initial reporting by Marijuana Moment, Ohio recreational sales are anticipated to generate between $276.2 million and $403.6 million in annual cannabis tax dollars within five years.
However, not every jurisdiction in Ohio will permit adult-use cannabis businesses to operate. A recent analysis by researchers at Ohio State University’s Moritz College of Law found that roughly 2% of local governments in Ohio (as of March 31st, 2024) will continue to prohibit recreational cannabis businesses from operating within their borders once legal adult-use sales launch in Ohio.
The United States adult-use cannabis industry has generated over $20 billion in total tax revenue since the first legal recreational cannabis purchase was made in Colorado on January 1st, 2014 according to a new report by the Marijuana Policy Project.
“Through the first quarter of 2024, states have reported a combined total of more than $20 billion in tax revenue from legal, adult-use cannabis sales. In 2023 alone, legalization states generated more than $4 billion in cannabis tax revenue from adult-use sales, which is the most revenue generated by cannabis sales in a single year.” the Marijuana Policy Project stated in a press release.
Total legal cannabis sales in the United States are expected to reach $31.4 billion in 2024 according to a recent analysis by Whitney Economics. Additionally, leading cannabis jobs platform Vangst, in conjunction with Whitney Economics, estimates that the legal cannabis industry now supports 440,445 full time-equivalent cannabis jobs in the United States.
Whitney Economics also projects the following legal cannabis sales figures in the United States for the coming years:
- 2024: $31.4 billion (9.1% growth from 2023)
- 2025: $35.2 billion (12.1% growth from 2024)
- 2030: $67.2 billion
- 2035: $87.0 billion
The emerging legal cannabis industry in the United States is projected to add roughly $112 billion to the nation’s economy in 2024 according to a newly released analysis by MJBiz Daily. The projection is part of the company’s 2024 MJBiz Factbook.
“The total U.S. economic impact generated by regulated marijuana sales could top $112.4 billion in 2024, about 12% more than last year,” MJBiz stated in its initial reporting.